TOP STORIES
Iran’s Attack On Israel Has Deepened Concerns About Its Nuclear Program | Wall Street Journal
Iran’s decision to launch more than 300 missiles and drones in its first direct attack on Israeli soil earlier this month showed an appetite for risk that is putting renewed focus on Tehran’s nuclear program and whether it will continue to refrain from developing a bomb. Close observers of Iran’s nuclear development have long believed the country’s top leaders have calculated that the costs of building a bomb outweigh the benefits. As a threshold nuclear power with weapon capabilities within reach, Iran already enjoys considerable deterrence power without risking the war that could come if an attempt to build a bomb is detected. But that thesis has been shaken this year. As tensions with Israel grew, top Iranian officials have made a string of statements hinting that Tehran is close to mastering the technicalities of building a bomb. Hours before Israel hit back at Iran, a senior officer in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Tehran could reverse its restraint on building a bomb if Israel struck its nuclear facilities.
Iran To Invest 3 Billion Euros In Border Wall | Iran International
Iran announced on Saturday that the government will provide the armed forces with three billion euros to “quickly start sealing the borders” against a backdrop of recent clashes with Taliban forces. “This comprehensive effort includes the installation of fences, walls, and intelligent border control systems, ensuring a robust defense of our borders,” Iran's Deputy Interior Minister Majid Mirahmadi said. On Thursday, Taliban forces captured five Iranian border guards in Afghan territory and handed them over to intelligence officials. Later that day, Iranian state media reported that they had been released. The Iranian government and the Taliban have been involved in several border disputes over recent months. According to the representative of Sistan-Baluchestan province, a heavily drought-stricken region in southeastern Iran, the Afghan government diverts the Helmand River's water through canals and dams. Water from the river plays a crucial role in agricultural irrigation and potable water supply.
Likely Missile Attack By Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Targets A Ship In The Red Sea | Associated Press
A suspected missile attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels targeted a ship in the Red Sea on Monday, authorities said, the latest assault in their campaign against international shipping in the crucial maritime route. The attack happened off the coast of Mokha, Yemen, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. It urged vessels to exercise caution in the area. There was “an explosion in close proximity to a merchant vessel,” the UKMTO said. “Vessel and crew are reported safe.”
UANI IN THE NEWS
…Today, Iranian state media reported its military had created a unnamed suicide drone, based of the Russian "Lancet" drone, designed for anti-ambush operation. A report last year by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) described Iran's drones as "a symbol of national pride of resilience" - a propaganda tool to inflate Iran's military might. "The advancement of its drone program represents a technological triumph for the Islamic Republic," the report added. Billed as Iran's first long-range UAV and first unveiled in 2010, the Karrar (striker) drone is a source of huge pride for Tehran. The then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that the drone was meant to deter enemies and would serve as “a messenger of death for enemies of mankind".
US Blacklists Tankers To Target Iranian Oil Sales And Drone Shipments | Tradewinds
…The blacklisting comes a day after President Joe Biden signed off a financial package to Ukraine and Israel alongside new measures aimed at targeting the Iranian oil trade which stands at a six-year high since sanctions were reimposed. The five ships spoofed their positions to disguise their activities to make it look as if they were loading Iraqi oil, according to campaign group United Against Nuclear Iran, which tracks tankers hauling Iranian cargoes. Four of the ships are linked to Sahara Thunder, which runs the commercial activities of the Iranian defense ministry, the US said. It is also said to be a key commercial operator behind Iran’s design, manufacture and sale of thousands of drones. Many of them go to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine, according to the US.
…According to a report by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), Iran’s drone program symbolizes the country’s resilience and military strength, serving as a propaganda tool to showcase Iran’s technological advancements.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Congress Leads On Iran Sanctions | Wall Street Journal
Aid to Ukraine and Israel got more attention, but the same package of national-security bills contained an important provision expanding sanctions against Iran. Iran’s missile and drone assault on Israel this month solidified support for the measures, which will exact a devastating economic toll on the regime and help thwart the Biden administration’s sanctions-relief effort. Four of the aid package’s most significant Iran-related provisions are the Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Security Accountability Act, known by the acronym Mahsa; the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum, Act, or SHIP; the Holding Iranian Leaders Accountable Act, and the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act. Two of these bills target high-level officials in the Islamic Republic. The other two support the U.S. position on Iran’s largest source of foreign income: its petroleum industry. Rep. Mike Lawler (R., N.Y.), sponsor of the SHIP Act, said: “We will finally begin to cut off Iran’s funding for terror at its source—its illicit oil trade.”
Biden Strategy To Tame Gas Prices Is In Peril As Iran Sanctions Pressure Mounts | Bloomberg
With only six months to go before the election, President Joe Biden’s strategy to lower gasoline prices is in jeopardy. The administration’s soft approach to sanctions on oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela has been key to its efforts to tame fuel costs. But that leniency is becoming politically riskier: Iran’s attack on Israel has intensified pressure on Biden to crack down on crude exports from the Islamic Republic. The OPEC member produces approximately 3 million barrels a day, equivalent to about 3% of global supply. And though Iranian crude might not find its way into US gasoline tanks, its presence generally helps to limit price gains.
Iran's Startups In Panic Mode As Shares Go To State-Tied Firms | Iran International
The sale of the majority of the shares of Iran’s most prominent startups to quasi-governmental companies has raised concerns regarding the state’s growing influence in the sector. Unconfirmed reports are circulating on social media that the shares of two leading Iranians startups, Digikala and Snapp, were sold to government-affiliated communication operators, Hamrah-e Aval and Irancell. Digikala is Iran’s biggest online retailer and Snapp is the country’s main ridesharing app. Likewise, half of the shares of Tapsi, another ridesharing app, was sold to Golrang Industrial Group, a government-backed holding. In an interview with Jahan-e-Sanat daily, Mohsen Mirsadri, the chairman of the commission for new businesses and knowledge enterprises of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, warned against the government’s rising influence in the startup sector. “Competition is one of the main drivers of exploration and creativity, and when governments play a large role in the economy, it becomes uncompetitive.
Pakistan, Iran Commit To $10 Billion Trade Goal Amid US Threat Of Sanctions | The Media Line
Pakistan and Iran have pledged to boost bilateral trade to $10 billion within the next five years, signing eight agreements and memorandums of understanding across various sectors toward that end. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi arrived in Islamabad last week along with a high-level delegation on Monday for a three-day visit. Shortly after his arrival, he met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. A statement from the Pakistani prime minister’s office stated that “both leaders agreed to increase bilateral trade volume to $10 billion in the next five years. They reaffirmed their commitment to expanding cooperation in trade, energy, communications, culture, and people-to-people relations.” The office also noted that the two leaders agreed to develop a joint plan of action to address terrorist threats and other shared challenges. The eight memorandums of understanding signed by Raisi and Sharif establish a special economic zone and a plan to increase collaboration in cinema.
MISSILE PROGRAM
Iran Unveils New Suicide Drone In Wake Of Sanctions | Iran International
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has unveiled a new suicide drone, engineered to fly into targets and detonate upon impact, similar to those employed by Russia in the Ukrainian conflict. The announcement was made through the IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency, which also released a video showcasing the yet-to-be-named drone, drawing comparisons to Russia's Zala Lancet model first produced in 2020. The new drone reportedly resembles the Lancet in its capabilities, expected to have a flight endurance between 30 to 60 minutes, carry a payload of 3 to 6 kilograms, and achieve a range of up to 40 kilometers. Iran's history with drone technology has been marked by its extensive provision of Shahed-type drones to Russia, which have been deployed against civilian targets and residential areas in Ukraine, which has led to global sanctions on the regime. Furthermore, Iran's recent actions include an unprecedented assault on Israel using 350 missiles and suicide drones, although they were successfully intercepted by Israel and a US-led coalition.
Iranian media revealed the development of a new loitering munition—colloquially known as “suicide” or “kamikaze” drones—over the weekend, noting its resemblance to Russia’s Lancet drone, which has seen combat in Syria and Ukraine since entering service in 2020. The existence of the drone, which has no known official name yet, was revealed in a report on Iran’s Tasnim News Agency over the weekend. Tasnim is affiliated with Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps paramilitary, which developed the drone. The report concluded, “Assuming that the new loitering munition manufactured by the IRGC is inspired by the Russian-made Lancet, the drone must have a flight endurance of 30 to 60 minutes and carry a payload of 3 to 6 kilograms within a range of 40 kilometers.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iran Women's Protests Are The Focus Of 'Persepolis' Author Marjane Satrapi's New Book | NPR
In her bright Paris apartment, Marjane Satrapi makes coffee, her cat rolling at a visitor's feet. The author of the internationally acclaimed graphic novel Persepolis, about a young girl coming of age during Iran's Islamic Revolution, Satrapi thought she had left comics behind. She's mostly been working in film in recent years. But she was pulled back to the medium after a young Iranian woman died at the hands of Iran's morality police for not properly wearing her hijab. The death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 sparked months of protests across Iran. Satrapi gets goosebumps thinking about it. She says it was history in the making. "These adolescents are like, 'Stop, we want another world,'" she says, speaking of the massive protests begun by young Iranian women and joined by young men. "If it was only young girls, I would be extremely scared. But the girls were carried by the young guys. This is the difference.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tells Gulf Arabs that Iran’s confrontation with Israel showed the need for greater defense integration. “This attack highlights the acute and growing threat from Iran, but also the imperative that we work together on integrated defense,” Blinken tells the Gulf Cooperation Council ministers meeting in Riyadh. Iran launched its first-ever direct missile and drone attack against Israel on April 13-14 after an April 1 strike widely blamed on the Jewish state that leveled what Tehran said was a consulate in Damascus and killed seven Revolutionary Guards, two of them generals. Israel allegedly responded with a missile strike on an Iranian air defense unit inside Iran.
Russia is ready to expand military and technical cooperation with Iran, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told his Iranian counterpart Gharaei Ashtiani at a meeting on Friday, the RIA state news agency reported. Contacts between the countries' military departments have increased signficantly recently, Shoigu was cited as saying. The two ministers were attending a meeting in Kazakhstan of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a security grouping that includes Russia, India, China, Iran, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iranian MPs Support Police Repression Under Unapproved Hijab Bill | Iran International
Over 160 Iranian lawmakers have endorsed further police crackdowns on the hijab before the approval of a new bill by the Guardian Council. The declaration was made public during a session on Sunday by parliament member Ali Karimi Firoozjaei, who indicated that the number of supporting signatures continues to rise amid deepening oppression. The lawmakers have called on various institutions to support the renewed police crackdown. The stance aligns with actions taken since April 13, under the Plan Noor, which have sparked debate due to their severity. The Revolutionary Guard has also joined in supporting the police mission to further enforce hijab, which has seen violent and sexual abuse of women in Iran. Hossein Shariatmadari, representing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at Kayhan newspaper, has voiced approval for the police's actions. Passed experimentally by the parliament last September for a trial period of three years, the bill proposes severe penalties for hijab defiance, including increased fines and prison terms. Before any legal endorsement by the Guardian Council, the police have preemptive.
How Changes In Iran’s Health Sector Weaken The Executive Branch | Amwaj Media
Iranian officials have recently sounded the alarm about the national health sector, stating that a large number of nurses are leaving the country. Although the emigration of medical personnel including doctors is a serious matter, the more alarming issue is the financial bottlenecks created by the government’s budget deficits and other irregularities.Social security in Iran is structured around a number of major entities. The largest actor is the Social Security Organization (SSO), which provides coverage to 54% of the population. Some 16% of Iranians are covered by other players such as the Armed Forces Pension Fund (AFPF). The remaining third of the population falls under Salamat Insurance—a public entity that offers basic medical coverage to the lowest income classes, at the government’s expense.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Congress Leads On Iran Sanctions | Wall Street Journal
Aid to Ukraine and Israel got more attention, but the same package of national-security bills contained an important provision expanding sanctions against Iran. Iran’s missile and drone assault on Israel this month solidified support for the measures, which will exact a devastating economic toll on the regime and help thwart the Biden administration’s sanctions-relief effort. Four of the aid package’s most significant Iran-related provisions are the Mahsa Amini Human Rights and Security Accountability Act, known by the acronym Mahsa; the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum, Act, or SHIP; the Holding Iranian Leaders Accountable Act, and the Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act. Two of these bills target high-level officials in the Islamic Republic. The other two support the U.S. position on Iran’s largest source of foreign income: its petroleum industry. Rep. Mike Lawler (R., N.Y.), sponsor of the SHIP Act, said: “We will finally begin to cut off Iran’s funding for terror at its source—its illicit oil trade.”
NORTH KOREA & IRAN
Iran Says North Korean Delegation Visiting Tehran For Trade Expo | Bloomberg
Official confirms visitors from Pyongyang attended trade event. Spokesman said visit also involves bilateral trade talks. An official delegation from North Korea is in Tehran to attend a trade show and have trade talks with the government and private sector, a spokesman said. Nasser Kanaani, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dismissed as “biased and baseless speculation” reports that the visit had a military dimension and said it involved talks on developing.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Syria has avoided getting embroiled in the Gaza war, experts said, despite a strike on a building near Iran’s Damascus consulate, blamed on Israel, that threatened to ignite a regional conflagration. The government of Syrian President Bashar Assad is seeking to strike a delicate balancing act between Russia and Iran, which have propped up it up during 13 years of civil war and helped it reclaim lost territory. Syria is part of the so-called Axis of Resistance — an alliance of Iran-backed groups that has launched attacks on Israel or its alleged assets since October. But its other main ally Russia maintains diplomatic ties with Israel and has pushed for stability in Syria’s south, which borders the Golan Heights. “The Israelis clearly warned Assad that if Syria was used against them they would destroy his regime,” said a Western diplomat who requested anonymity because he is not allowed to speak to the media.
An Israeli drone strike on a car in eastern Lebanon killed two people Friday, Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency says. The strike came after Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group carried out an attack along the border that killed an Israeli civilian. Hezbollah and Israel have traded fire on a near-daily basis along the border since the start of Israel-Hamas war nearly seven months ago. Egypt sent a high-level delegation to Israel on Friday for talks seeking to push through a cease-fire agreement with Hamas and avert an Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip city of Rafah, officials said. More than half of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million have sought refuge in Rafah. The city is on the border with Egypt, which warned that a possible Israeli offensive focused on Rafah could have catastrophic consequences to regional stability. The Israeli military has massed dozens of tanks and armored vehicles in the area in what appears to be preparations for an invasion of the city.
MISCELLANEOUS
How Iran Seeks To Take Advantage Of Campus Protests In US | Iran International
Pro-Palestinian student protests in the US are making headlines in Iran, as the regime and its media continue to bet on political trouble overseas to make up for lost legitimacy at home. The ongoing encampments on campuses across the US have featured on the cover pages of many Iranian dailies in the past few days, triggering a considerable backlash from ordinary Iranians who view the stunt as ‘glaringly hypocritical’ from a regime that suspends, beats and imprisons students for much less than what students have been doing in the US in the past ten days. “US universities are in the hands of students and professors that while condemning Israeli crimes in Gaza, are calling for the release of protesting students and the reinstatement of sacked students and members of faculty,” wrote the ultra-hardline Keyhan, which has been heralding the ‘demise’ and ‘end’ of the US and Israel for many years.